地點(diǎn)：7號(hào)樓報(bào)告廳
講座題目：“中澳關(guān)系”
演講人：悉尼科技大學(xué)澳中關(guān)系研究院院長 鮑勃•卡爾教授

Public Lecture on Australia-China Relations by Professor the Hon. Bob Carr, Director of the Australia-China Relations Institute, University of Technology Sydney

近三十年來，澳大利亞的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長受益于中國的迅速發(fā)展及其對自然資源的巨大需求。而今中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展進(jìn)入新常態(tài)，雖然增速低于過去三十年，但增量仍不小于過去。到2030年，中國將有70%的中產(chǎn)階級(jí)：中產(chǎn)階級(jí)人口數(shù)增加8.6億。澳大利亞必須適應(yīng)中國從“出口型經(jīng)濟(jì)”到“消費(fèi)型經(jīng)濟(jì)”的轉(zhuǎn)型。澳大利亞加入亞投行并簽署澳中自貿(mào)協(xié)訂是其明智之舉。那么最近澳大利亞新總理的上任對于澳方的對華政策意味著什么呢？澳大利亞會(huì)像新西蘭、英國和德國一樣采取實(shí)用主義的對華政策？還是在南海問題上與美國結(jié)成統(tǒng)一陣線？現(xiàn)任的特恩布爾政府需要謹(jǐn)慎思量其對美國與中國的外交策略。

Over the past three decades the Australian economy has benefitted from China’s rapid growth and huge appetite for natural resources. China’s economy is now transitioning to a new normal growth rate slower than that of the past 30 years but it is still adding more dollars to the economy than ever before. By 2030, 70 percent of the Chinese population is likely to enjoy middle class status: that’s 860 million more middle class Chinese than today. Australia must reorient as China shifts from an export-oriented model to a consumption-based economy. Signing up to the AIIB and ratifying the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement have been steps in the right direction. What does a recent change of Prime Minister mean for Australia’s China policy? A pragmatic China policy like those of New Zealand, the UK and Germany? Or a commitment to link-up with the US in the South China Sea out in front of other US partners? The Turnbull Government will need to continually manage its choices with the US and China using careful diplomacy.